How Often Has Maine Voted Correctly in the Presidential Election?
Have you ever wondered how many times our Pine Tree State’s choice aligned with the eventual winner? Well, now we know!
Voting is one of the most important responsibilities we have as citizens. It’s a privilege that not everyone around the world gets to experience, and it allows us to have a say in shaping our country’s future. Here in Maine, voting works a little differently than in most other states because of the way our electoral votes are distributed.
Maine is one of the few states that can split its electoral votes between candidates.
While Maine has four electoral votes in total, two are based on the state's districts, with each district getting one vote, and the remaining two go to the statewide winner. This unique system allows Maine’s 1st and 2nd districts to vote differently if they choose. The state adopted this method in 1972.
In recent years, Maine has often seen its two congressional districts vote differently.
Our state first split its electoral votes in 2016 when Donald Trump won the 2nd District, marking the first Republican win in Maine since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Trump repeated his 2nd District win in 2020, continuing the trend of the state's divided vote.
Historically, Maine was known as a 'bellwether state' in presidential elections. But what exactly is a 'bellwether state?'
'Vacationland' was once referred to as a 'bellwether state' because its election results were seen as a predictor for presidential races. The popular saying, 'As Maine goes, so goes the nation,' reflected this belief. Maine held its state elections in September, and the outcome often provided a strong indication of which party would win the national election between 1820 and 1932.
So, with that in mind, from 1820 to 2020, how many times has Maine's choice aligned with the eventual winner?
Out of the 51 presidential elections that Maine has participated in, the state voted for the winning candidate 33 times, which is about 64.7%. For example, in 2008, Maine supported Barack Obama, who went on to become president. However, in 2004, while John Kerry won Maine’s 1st District, 2nd District, and the state at large, he did not win the presidency. This shows that Maine's vote isn't always a predictor of the final outcome.
What are your thoughts on these results? Are they surprising? We'd love to hear from you! Feel free to join the conversation by messaging us on the app.
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